대공세가 가능할지 의문스런 우크라이나 병력 충원 실태
월스트리트저널 취재 기사입니다.
A Year Into War, Ukraine Faces Challenges Mobilizing Troops
2023.03.23
“We can’t do as Russia does and drive people to war with
batons,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in February,
three days after he renewed a decree on mobilization that makes
reservists and most healthy men of fighting age eligible for call-up,
in place since the war started.
He said evasion of military service was a serious issue for Ukraine.
Ukraine had a standing army of 260,000 when Russia invaded, and
around 100,000 have been killed or wounded since then, according to
Western estimates.
Alongside the recruitment campaigns, Ukraine is increasingly relying
on enlistment officers in military uniform handing out summonses in
public spaces. The Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic
security and intelligence agency, said this month that it had closed
down 26 Telegram channels that had been posting the locations and
times where they were active.
There have been public scandals involving inappropriate call-ups
and videos appearing to show men being roughed up by enlistment
officers for refusing a summons. A disabled person was drafted in
western Ukraine and pronounced fit for service despite having no
hands. Another died on the front lines within a month of mobilization
after 10 days of training, according to his relatives.
A 37-year-old native of Kyiv left Ukraine in February after paying
close to $10,000 for three different schemes. He had owned a small
business selling car parts in the Ukrainian capital but said it fell
apart when the war started.
A friend had a contact at a draft office, and the businessman paid
the contact $3,000 for documents listing him as unfit for service.
The contact took his money and stopped answering his calls, he said.
In the end, he acquired a document listing him as a volunteer
aid worker, traveled to the Polish border at night and spent an hour
convincing a guard that he wasn’t trying to flee before finally being
allowed to enter Poland.
“For the first time in a year I felt free, like my life again belonged
to me,” he said in a phone interview from Canada, where he is
building a new life with his wife.
우크라 대통령실 "전사한 우크라 병사, 최대 1만3천명"
2022.12.02
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/001/0013619339?sid=104
젤렌스키, 폴란드 도착…전쟁 후 첫 바르샤바 공식방문
2023.04.05
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/001/0013862412?sid=104
우크라이나가 3,700만,러시아가 1억 5천만이니 4배차이인데다가
우크라이나군 현역이 19만명 정도였으니 서방 추산이면 현역의 절반은
전선을 이탈한거고 예비군을 동원하는 건데 이또한 영토방위부대와 나눠야 하니
무리하게 동원해도 10~15만명이 한계겠죠 그렇다고 무장체계가 러시아와 큰
차이를 보이는 것도 아니니까요
아뇨 휴전은 없을껍니다 휴전을 할려면 절충점을 찾아야 되는데 두나라 다 자포리자,헤르손,크림반도 이 3곳은
자국이 가져야 한다는 조건을 제시할텐데 이러면 휴전이 성립될리가 없으니 전쟁은 계속 되죠
3개월 넘어가는 시점부터 소모전은 기정사실이였으니까요 그리고 만약에 러시아에 불리하게 휴전이 된다면
무조건 2차전은 기정사실로 하고 서방과 우크라이나는 그에 대한 대비는 해야되겠죠
시점은 모르겠지만 벨로루시와 국가연합을 빙자한 합병을 한후 이스라엘의 6일전쟁 같은 작전을 하겠죠
(근데 이번 전쟁도 원래 계획은 예방전쟁+단기결전 아니였나요??)
두나라 다 얼마나 전쟁을 계속 수행할 의지가 있냐가 문제겠죠