[RAND 연구소] Missiles for Asia? - The Need for Operational Analysis of U.S. Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR900/RR945/RAND_RR945.pdf

다운로드 :  RAND_RR945.pdf

Missiles for Asia? - The Need for Operational Analysis of U.S. Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific

RAND 연구소

1987년 중거리 핵무기 협정(INF) 체결 이후 사거리 500~5,500km의 재래식 및 핵탄두 장착 탄도 미사일 및 순항미사일이 금지되었지만,

미국은 2014년에 러시아가 조약을 파괴했다고 결론내렸고, 대응을 모색했다.

그리고 중국의 군사력 현대화가 미군에 대한 위협으로 다가왔으며, 이에 따라 미국에게 지상기반 전술 탄도탄에 대한 고려가 필요하게 되었다.

라는 취지의 RAND 연구소 보고서입니다.

Key Findings

The Durability of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is in Doubt
•The U.S. Department of State has concluded that Russia is in violation of its obligations under the treaty.
•The United States remains committed to the treaty and seeks to encourage Russia to return to compliance by eliminating prohibited systems. The prospects are unclear; attempts to revive the treaty could take several years.
•It is too soon for the U.S. to decide to withdraw from the treaty, but it is still worth examining the benefits and risks of adding conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles (TBMs) to the U.S. force structure.

China's Rapid Military Modernization Could Threaten U.S. Forces
•Land-based, conventionally armed precision ballistic and cruise missile systems have been a focus area for modernization.
•Chinese TBMs could play a key enabling role in counterintervention campaigns.

TBMs Offer Some Potential Benefits
•TBMs might provide negotiating leverage in new arms-control negotiations.
•TBMs can be survivable, can strike quickly, and can penetrate many defenses.
•Development risks are likely lower for TBMs than for other candidate technologies.

But the Benefits Must Be Weighed Against the Potential Risks
•Land-based TBMs would require regional access agreements, which may be difficult to obtain.
•TBMs are more expensive than some alternatives, such as cruise missiles, and could be slow to deploy into rapidly evolving crises.
•The characteristics of TBMs make it difficult to reassure adversaries that they will not be used in surprise attacks on leadership or other sensitive targets, potentially undermining structural stability and crisis management.

Recommendations

•The U.S. Army can start a rigorous operational analysis of the potential military value that conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles (TBMs) could add to the U.S. portfolio of strike capabilities.
•In particular, the U.S. Army should analyze the potential military value of TBMs in the Pacific and whether they might plausibly help the U.S. offset China's military modernization.